RePEc: Research Papers in Economics
Research Papers in Economics is a collaborative effort of hundreds of volunteers in many countries to enhance the dissemination of research in economics.
School of Economics and Finance Discussion Papers and Working Papers Series
2004
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#186dDownload full text
- JEL-Codes:
- C41; C14;J64
- Keywords:
- job-offer arrival rates, reservation wages, wage-offer distribution, directed
Do You Need a Job to Find a Job?
This paper investigates whether job offers arrive more frequently for those in employment than for those in unemployment. To this end, we take advantage of a unique Australian data set which contains information on both accepted and rejected job offers. Our estimation strategy takes account of the selectivity associated with the initial employment state and we allow for individual heterogeneity in the probability of obtaining jobs. Our results reveal that, across the wage range, individuals are about equally likely to obtain a job offer in employment as in unemployment. This implies that encouraging unemployed (rather than employed) search through the provision of unemployment benefits does not improve the speed of a job match.
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#186bDownload full text
- JEL-Codes:
- H11;O14;O38;D72
- Keywords:
- Transition, Political Power, Relational Capital, Growth
Why the US and not Brazil? Old Elites and the Development of a Modern Economy
Old elites can block changes, but not all do. Why is it that stronger elites may allow more changes than weaker elites? Why do economies with larger stocks of natural resources not grow faster than economies poorer in natural resources?
We argue that old elites hold some power to extract rents from the economy. Whereas old sectors (i.e. agriculture or extraction of natural resources) are not affected by rent extraction, modern sectors require investments that do react to rent extraction. At the same time, a modern sector relies on networks of firms. These structures form the basis of political power of a new elite, which reduces the ability of the old elite to extract rents.
We show that countries rich in natural resources provide their old elite with incentives to extract rents so high that the private sector has no incentives to build up a modern economy. If the old elite is either politically very strong or the natural resource sector is small compared to the potential of the modern sector, the old elite will choose to extract smaller rents from a growing sector. Some empirical evidence completes the paper. -
#186aDownload full text
- JEL-Codes:
- O1;O41; P51
Social Capital, Creative Destruction and Economic Growth
This paper provides an analytical framework to capture the economic importance of social capital for growth and innovation. Relational Capital (RC) consists of contacts between economic necessary to acquire inputs and to sell outputs units. These contacts form the individual aspect of social capital that is directly productive. Replacement of old contacts by new ones is part of Schumpeterian creative destruction leading to technological progress. Because informal social networks facilitate the search for contacts, many empirical studies find that social networks supports income generation and innovation. Market institutions enjoy increasing returns to scale in aiding contact formation compared to informal social capital networks. For growth rates in developing countries to increase, a 'fundamental transformation' from informal to formal search institutions is therefore required. But since RC replacement carries a negative externality, creative destruction and technological progress may be punished if it threatens political elite interests. Growth experiences in transition and developing countries are interpreted in this framework.
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#186
Systematic Features of High-Frequency Volatility in Australian Electricity Markets: Intraday Patterns, Information Arrival and Calendar Effects
This paper investigates the intraday price volatility process in four Australian wholesale electricity markets; namely New South Wales, Queensland, South Australia and Victoria. The data set consists of half-hourly electricity prices and demand volumes over the period 1 January 2002 to 1 June 2003. A range of processes including GARCH, Risk Metrics, normal Asymmetric Power ARCH or APARCH, Student APARCH and skewed Student APARCH are used to model the time-varying variance in prices and the inclusion of news arrival as proxied by the contemporaneous volume of demand, time-of-day, day-of-week and month-of-year effects as exogenous explanatory variables. The skewed Student APARCH model, which takes account of right skewed and fat tailed characteristics, produces the best results in three of the markets with the Student APARCH model performing better in the fourth. The results indicate significant innovation spillovers (ARCH effects) and volatility spillovers (GARCH effects) in the conditional standard deviation equation, even with market and calendar effects included. Intraday prices also exhibit significant asymmetric responses of volatility to the flow of information.
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#185Download full text
- Keywords:
- Financial literacy; ordered logit; demographic, socioeconomic and financial characteristics.
The Distribution of Financial Literacy in Australia
Ordered logit models are used to predict financial literacy on the basis of individual demographic, socioeconomic and financial characteristics. The data is drawn from the 2003 ANZ Survey of Adult Financial Literacy in Australia and relates to 3,548 respondents. Financial literacy is defined, amongst other things, in terms of standard mathematical ability and understanding of basic and advanced financial terms. Factors examined include gender, age, ethnicity, occupation, educational level and family structure, along with household income, savings (including superannuation), and mortgage and non-mortgage debt. The evidence suggests that financial literacy is highest for respondents aged between 50 and 60 years, professionals, executives, business and farm owners, and those who have completed university or college with higher levels of income, savings and debt. Financial literacy is lowest for females, the unemployed and other non-workers, those from a non-English speaking background, and those with only the lowest levels of secondary education. The models best predict the highest and lowest levels of financial literacy.
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#184
Financial returns and price determinants in the Australian art market, 1973-2003
In this study, 37,605 paintings by sixty well-known Australian artists sold at auction over the period 1973-2003 are used to construct a hedonic price index. The attributes included in the hedonic regression model include the name and living status of the artist, the size and medium of the painting, and the auction house and year in which the painting was sold. The resulting index indicates that returns on Australian fine-art averaged seven percent in nominal terms over the period with a standard deviation of sixteen percent. As a result, the risk-adjusted return of 0.42 in the Australian art market is only slightly less than the risk-adjusted return of 0.44 in the Australian stock market over the same period. The hedonic regression model also captures the willingness to pay for perceived attributes in the artwork, and this shows that works by McCubbin, Gascoigne, Thomas and Preston and other artists deceased at the time of auction, works executed in oils or acrylic, and those auctioned by Sotheby's or Christie's are associated with higher prices.
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#183Download full text
- JEL-Codes:
- C22; F31; G15
- Keywords:
- exchange rate; exchange market pressure; foreign exchange intervention
Exchange Market Pressure in Australia
This paper measures the exchange market pressure (EMP) on the Australian dollar over the post-float period using the model-dependent approach proposed by Weymark (1995, 1998) and the model-independent approach developed by Eichengreen, Rose and Wyplosz (1996). Although there are some concerns over the estimation of the model-dependent index, the resulting EMP indices both appear to provide relatively plausible descriptions of the pressure on the Australian dollar. The role of foreign exchange intervention is examined through the construction of degree of intervention (DI) indices. The results reveal that intervention by the Reserve Bank of Australia contributed to the large depreciation of the Australian dollar between 1997 and 2001.
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#182Download full text
- JEL-Codes:
- F31; G14
- Keywords:
- Foreign exchange, momentum, trading rules
A Test of Momentum Trading Strategies in Foreign Exchange Markets: Evidence from the G7
In this trading strategy study, we ask three questions. First, does momentum exist in foreign exchange markets? Second, what is the impact of transactions costs on excess returns? And, third, can a consolidated trading signal garner excess returns and, if so, what is the source of such returns? Using total return momentum strategies in the foreign exchange markets of the G7 for the period 1980 through 2004, the answers from this study are as follows: we find evidence of momentum; however, such momentum appears transitory, particularly for longer look back periods. As expected, transaction costs have a material negative impact on excess returns. Finally, a consolidated signal garners excess returns; however, a bootstrap simulation finds the source of these returns is a function of autocorrelation.
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#181
On Skill Heterogeneity and Inflation
This paper examines the welfare costs of inflation within a dynamic general equilibrium framework that incorporates ex ante skill heterogeneity among workers. Money is introduced via a cash-in-advance constraint on the purchases of consumption. Numerical experiments based on a plausible parameterization of the model indicate that welfare costs of inflation relative to an optimal monetary policy decrease as skill heterogeneity increases. An implication of this feature is that a greater degree of skill heterogeneity would be associated with a greater tolerance for inflation, consequently implying a positive correlation between agent heterogeneity and inflation. We also conduct an empirical study based on a panel of several countries that lends some support to this hypothesis. If we focus on the experience of industrialized economies, the data finds supports a positive inflation-heterogeneity correlation. However, this is not true of less developed economies, in which the inflation heterogeneity correlation if found to be negative.
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#180Download full text
- JEL-Codes:
- F31
- Keywords:
- operating exposure; hedging
An Operating Economic Exposure - Australian Case Study: Foster’s Group Limited Beer
This paper uses a large Australian multinational corporation as a case study examining foreign exchange operating exposure. We firstly review the importance of operating exposure for a business and then examine in detail the company’s exposure and policies to manage the exposure. A sensitivity analysis is also conducted to examine how movements in the value of exchange rates affect the company. We conclude with some suggestions as to how the company could further protect itself from adverse movements.
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#178Download full text
- JEL-Codes:
- C32; C51; G12
- Keywords:
- Long-memory, Switching, Estimation theory, Spectral
How Can We Define The Concept of Long Memory? An Econometric Survey
In this paper we discuss different aspects of long mzmory behavior and specify what kinds of parametric models follow them. We discuss the confusion which can arise when empirical autocorrelation function of a short memory process decreases in an hyperbolic way.
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#177Download full text
- JEL-Codes:
- G120; G150
- Keywords:
- Idiosyncratic volatility, Asset Pricing, Unique risk
Idiosyncratic Volatility Matter? New Zealand Evidence
Standard asset pricing models ignore idiosyncratic risk. In this study we examine if stock idiosyncratic or unique risk affects returns for New Zealand stocks using the factor portfolio mimicking approach of Fama and French (1993, 1996). We find evidence of a negative relationship between firm size and a stock’s idiosyncratic volatility. Small firms and firms with high idiosyncratic risk also generate positive risk premia after controlling for market returns. We find no evidence of seasonal effects that can explain our findings. Our study provides support for an asset-pricing model with multiple risk factors.
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#176Download full text
- Keywords:
- Internet banking; Electronic connectivity; Information technology
The relationship between the adoption of Internet banking and electronic connectivity: - An international comparison
This paper is concerned with the relationship between the adoption rate of Internet banking and electronic connectivity. Electronic connectivity is measured using three components: personal computer connectivity, Internet connectivity and mobile phone connectivity. Regression is used to analyse these relationships for a sample of developed and developing economies. The results indicate that changes in electronic connectivity, however defined, have a significant impact on the adoption rate of Internet banking. The most significant influence on the adoption rate of Internet banking would appear to be the increase in the percentage of the population owning personal computers.
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#175
An Analysis of the Rising Cost of Education in Australia
Human capital, or a better educated labour force, is a major determinant of economic growth and productivity. However, recent trends in the cost of education in Australia may cause growth and productivity to suffer. For example, during the period 1982-2003 inflation rose on average by 4.4 per cent per annum, whereas the cost of education grew overall on average by 7.8 per cent. This has made education a relatively expensive item among Australian households. This paper compares and contrasts the cost of education in Australia and comparable economies with the cost of other goods and services embedded in the CPI (Consumer Price Index) basket using the latest available quarterly data. Finally, the major determinants of the rising cost of education in Australia are examined. It is found, inter alia, that over the period 1986-2003 the increasing number of students enrolled at non-governmental primary and secondary schools and the introduction of the Higher Education Contribution Scheme (HECS) were major influences on the rising cost of education, explaining some 98 per cent of variation in the cost of education in Australia over time.
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#174Download full text
- JEL-Codes:
- G110; G120; G150
- Keywords:
- Asset Pricing, CAPM, China, Small Firm Effect, Turn of the Year Effect.
Pricing of Equities in China: Evidence from the Shanghai Stock Exchange
In this paper we compare the performance of the traditional CAPM with the multifactor model of Fama and French (1996) for equities listed in the Shanghai Stock Exchange. We also investigate the explanatory power of idiosyncratic volatility and respond to the claim that multifactor model findings can be explained by the turn of the year effect. Our results show that firm size, book to market equity and idiosyncratic volatility are priced risk factors in addition to the theoretically well specified market factor. As far as the turn of the year effect is concerned we reject the claim that the findings are driven by seasonal factors. Our findings have implications for both academic researchers and practitioners. This is because we demonstrate that by following the investment strategies investigated in this paper superior returns could be generated – returns in addition to those offered by the market. Of course this is only applicable to those investors who are willing to take additional risks in order to generate additional returns. In summary, our results show that a broader asset pricing model such as the one investigated in this paper does a much better job than the single index CAPM.
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#173
Portability of Superannuation Balances
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#172Download full text
- JEL-Codes:
- G120; G150
- Keywords:
- Liquidity, Turnover, Asset Pricing, and Closing Bid-Ask Spread
Small Firm Effect, Liquidity and Security Returns: Australian Evidence
Standard asset pricing models ignore the costs of liquidity. In this study we advance the ongoing debate on empirical asset pricing and test if liquidity costs (as proxied by turnover rate, turnover ratio and bid-ask spread) affect stock returns for Australian stocks. Our tests use the factor portfolio mimicking approach of Fama and French (1993, 1996). We find small and less liquid firms generate positive risk premia after controlling for market returns and firm size. We find no evidence of any seasonal effects that can explain our multifactor asset pricing model findings. In summary, our study provides support for a broader asset-pricing model with multiple risk factors.
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#171Download full text
- JEL-Codes:
- E30; O56; F41
Measures of National Export Price Volatility Based on the Capital Asset Pricing Model
As is the case with most small open economies, volatility in Australia’s export prices is an important source of national macroeconomic disturbance largely out of its control given its choice of export bundle. The Capital Asset Pricing Model of portfolio theory is employed as a useful framework for distinguishing the extent to which export price volatility consists of global versus country-specific risk for the set of 14 OECD countries investigated. We find that global (systematic) risk is evidently becoming more important for many of the countries in the OECD sample over the last 25 years as compared with the previous 25 year period. The paper also finds that, by a number of different measures, whilst Australia’s export price growth has apparently become more highly associated with World export prices in recent years, it nonetheless continues to have one of the more volatile set of export prices among OECD countries.
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#170Download full text
- JEL-Codes:
- G110; G120; G150
- Keywords:
- Idiosyncratic Volatility, Size Effect, CAPM, Risk Premia
Equity Premium: - Does it exist? Evidence from Germany and United Kingdom
Malkiel and Xu (1997) state that idiosyncratic volatility is highly correlated with size and that it plays a powerful role in explaining expected returns. In this paper we ask (a) whether idiosyncratic volatility is useful in explaining the variation in expected returns; and, (b) whether our findings can be explained by the turn of the year effect. We find that (a) our three-factor model provides a better description of expected returns than the CAPM. That is, we find that firm size and idiosyncratic volatility are related to security returns. In addition, we also find that our findings are robust throughout the sample period. We show that the CAPM beta alone is not sufficient to explain the variation in stock returns.
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#169
Do Momentum Strategies Work?: - Australian Evidence
This paper investigates the profitability of momentum investment strategy and the predictive power of trading volume for equities listed in the Australian Stock Exchange. Recent research finds that momentum and trading volume appear to predict subsequent returns in U.S. market and past volume helps to reconcile intermediate-horizon “under reaction” and long-horizon “overreaction” effects. However, bulk of the evidence on this important relationship between past returns and future returns is limited to U.S. portfolios. This study provides an out of sample evidence by examining the relationship between “trading volume” (measured by the turnover ratio) and “momentum” strategies in an Australian setting. We document a strong momentum effect for the Australian market during the period 1988 through 2002 and find that momentum plays an important role in providing information about stocks. We also find that past trading volume predicts both the magnitude and persistence of price momentum. In summary, our findings are consistent with the U.S. evidence.