RePEc: Research Papers in Economics
Research Papers in Economics is a collaborative effort of hundreds of volunteers in many countries to enhance the dissemination of research in economics.
School of Economics and Finance Discussion Papers and Working Papers Series
2005
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#205c
Inside the black box of social capital: micro-models of the value of contacts
This paper attempts to look inside the black box of social capital by developing micro-models of the value of contacts, leading to production functions that depend on the number of contacts. We identify 4 sources of the value of contacts: economies of scale, comparative advantage, skill spreads, and discount rates in the presence of indivisible intermediaries. We argue that skill spreads and discount rates are more relevant to the value of social contacts in developed economies while economies of scale and comparative advantage are more likely to be important in developing economies.
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#205aDownload full text
- JEL-Codes:
- O11;O41;P51
- Keywords:
- Endogenous Growth, Relational Capital, Development,
Contacts, Market Institutions, and Development
We propose an endogenous growth model that incorporates the importance of business contacts and informal contacts. In our model, sold output increases with the stock of business contacts. The modelling of contact creation is based on matching theory. The cost of creating contacts decreases with more Community level Social Capital and Market Institutions, which we understand as networks of informal contacts.
Technological growth is driven by the replacement of contacts within the economy. Political interference and centralization can provide disincentives to break old contacts and hence affect innovation. Simulations suggests that our model is in line with empirical observations. -
#205
On Skill Heterogeneity, Human Capital, and Inflation
This paper examines the welfare costs of inflation within a monetary dynamic general equilibrium framework with human capital that incorporates endogenous, ex ante skill heterogeneity among workers. Numerical experiments indicate that, overall, welfare costs are more likely to decrease with increases in skill heterogeneity. An implication of this feature is that a greater degree of skill heterogeneity may be associated with a higher tolerance for inflation, consequently implying a positive correlation between agent heterogeneity and inflation. Using a panel of several countries we empirically test this proposition. Our evidence lends some support to this hypothesis.
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#204Download full text
- Keywords:
- State owned enterprise, corporate governance, and corporate performance
Corporate Governance and Corporate Performance: Some Evidence from Newly Listed Firms on Chinese Stock Markets
This paper is concerned with some corporate governance issues related to newly listed firms in China based on a sample of 329 firms commencing listing on Shanghai Stock Exchange (SHSE) and Shenzhen Stock exchange (SZSE) during the period from 1998 to 2000. We first investigate the impact of ownership change due to stock market listing on corporate performance. We consider four aspects of corporate performance: profitability, sales, leverage and employee productivity. Our research results indicate that, on average, profitability, sales and employee productivity have improved from pre-listing to post-listing. We further investigate the impacts of state majority control, foreign ownership and regulation effects on corporate performance. Overall, this paper provides some new evidence on the listing effect, ownership structure and regulation effect on Chinese firms which will be valuable to the future reform of state owned enterprises in China.
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#203
Assesing the Economic Significance of the Intra-daily Volatility Seasonalities
It is a well established empirical fact that volatility follows approxi- mately an inverted U-shaped pattern during the day. It is high in the morning, gradually decreasing, reaching a minimum at lunch time and then starting to increase again until the end of the trading day. In this paper we investigate the dynamic properties of these intra-daily volatility seasonalities. More specifically, we divide daily volatility into several parts and model them separately. Our analysis shows that morning/afternoon volatility has a different time-series behaviour in comparison to lunch time volatility. Also, a substantial improvement in forecasting performance can be obtained by partitioning daily volatility into parts which correspond to the observed intra-daily seasonalities.
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#202
International Effects of the Andersen Accounting and Auditing Scandals: Some Evidence from the US, UK and Australian Stock Markets
In this paper, we use event study methodology to examine the effect of two highly publicized accounting failures, at Enron and WorldCom both audited by Arthur Andersen, on the total stock returns of some companies in the UK also audited by Arthur Andersen. The results vary substantially between countries. We find no evidence of a significant impact in the UK or US. There is some evidence of negative abnormal returns at the time of the Enron scandal in Australia. However, this reaction was very short-lived and the negative abnormal returns on the stocks of Andersen-audited companies had been fully recovered within a week. Our results suggest that sharing an auditor with a firm that has issued corrections to accounts which have previously received an unqualified audit opinion does not significantly affect market perceptions of firms’ value, which suggests that the choice of auditor has little, if any, impact on market perceptions of the reliability of published financial information. Key words: Accounting scandals, Enron, WorldCom, Event study, International Stock Markets.
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#201Download full text
- Keywords:
- Time-varying betas; moving average; bivariate GARCH; demutualization and self-listing, exchanges
Market Risk in Demutualised Self-Listed Stock Exchanges: An International Analysis of Selected Time-Varying Betas
This paper examines market risk in four demutualised and self-listed stock exchanges: the Australian Stock Exchange, the Deutsche Börse, the London Stock Exchange and the Singapore Stock Exchange. Daily company and MSCI index returns provide the respective asset and market portfolio data. A bivariate MA-GARCH model is used to estimate time-varying betas for each exchange from listing until 7 June 2005. While the results indicate significant beta volatility, unit root tests show the betas to be mean-reverting. These findings are used to suggest that despite concerns that demutualised and self-listed exchanges entail new market risks that merit regulatory intervention, the betas of the exchange companies have not changed significantly since listing. However, market risk does vary considerable across the exchanges, with mean time-varying betas of 0.56 for the Deutsche Börse, 0.66 for the London Stock Exchange, 0.78 for the Singapore Stock Exchange, and 0.95 for the Australian Stock Exchange. Key words: Accounting scandals, Enron, WorldCom, Event study, International Stock Markets.
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#200Download full text
- Keywords:
- Markov Regime Switching, Business Cycle, Quadratic Probability Score
Testing the Power of Leading Indicators to Predict Business Cycle Phase Changes
In the business cycle literature researchers often want to determine the extent to which models of the business cycle reproduce broad characteristics of the real world business cycle they purport to represent. Of considerable interest is whether a model’s implied cycle chronology is consistent with the actual business cycle chronology. In the US, a very widely accepted business cycle chronology is that compiled by the National Bureau of Economic research (NBER) and the vast majority of US business cycle scholars have, for many years, proceeded to test their models for their consistency with the NBER dates. In doing this, one of the most prevalent metrics in use since its introduction into the business cycle literature by Diebold and Rudebusch (1989) is the so-called quadratic probability score, or QPS. However, an important limitation to the use of the QPS statistic is that its sampling distribution is unknown so that rigorous statistical inference is not feasible. We suggest circumventing this by bootstrapping the distribution. This analysis yields some interesting insights into the relationship between statistical measures of goodness of fit of a model and the ability of the model to predict some underlying set of regimes of interest. Furthermore, in modeling the business cycle, a popular approach in recent years has been to use some variant of the so-called Markov regime switching (MRS) model first introduced by Hamilton (1989) and we therefore use MRS models as the framework for the paper. Of course, the approach could be applied to any US business cycle model.
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#199Download full text
- Keywords:
- Corporate Finance; Investment; Economic Investment; Finance Investment; Discount Rate; Net Present Cost Formula; Cost Decision; Net Cost Projects; Social Projects; Net Present Cost; Net Present Value;
The Cost Decision: A New Discount Approach for Net Cost Projects
This discussion paper proposes a new decision rule for economic investment theory, the Cost Decision, and describes a new discount approach for Net Cost Projects and the Net Present Cost Formula. The paper illustrates the problems faced internationally, at all levels of government, of assessing Net Cost Projects from a finance perspective. The paper discusses the Cost Decision in the controversial context of public-private partnerships and compares the four main alternative approaches to the Cost Decision currently used in practice. The paper is also relevant when analysing Net Cost Projects undertaken by private sector entities and individuals.
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#198
GLOBALISATION, CONCENTRATION OF GENETIC MATERIAL AND THEIR IMPLICATIONS FOR SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT
This paper examines impacts, both positive and negative, of globalisation on the selection of a limited gene pool in livestock and agricultural production. This concentration has increased yields at high rates. It is associated with modern forms of production that are an integral part of a globalised economic system. Such strategies, at least in the short run, reduce production costs and cater for the demands of an increasing population and the needs of modern societies. As will be demonstrated, the ascribed economic benefits of such forms of production also lead to the promotion of such production by donor agencies and are linked to overseas aid, in some instances. On the other hand, specialised systems of production are not without their drawbacks. Such systems of production make many breeds (eg. ‘all-round’ breeds) obsolete for commercial use. This often leads to their gradual extinction because of the low economic values placed on them. When concentration of production relies on a few breeds it inevitably leads to several lock-in dimensions in the use of some production inputs. The lock-in aspects of this form of production, processes involved in the disappearance of breeds and their implications for sustainable development are amongst the issues discussed in this paper.
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#197Download full text
- Keywords:
- Exposure to pesticides, ill-health, defensive behaviour, influencing factors, developing countries
Exposure to pesticides, ill-health and averting behaviour: Costs and determining the relationships
Farmers' exposure to pesticides is high in developing countries. As a result they suffer from ill-health, both short and long term. Deaths are not uncommon. The paper examines the cause of this high exposure by estimating farmers’ expenditure on precautions taken using the avertive behaviour approach. The data show that the expenditures on defensive behaviour are low. The paper then uses tobit regression analysis to determine factors that influence defensive behaviour. The results are useful, not only for Sri Lanka, but for many countries in South Asia, Africa and Latin America in reducing the current high levels of direct exposure to pesticides among farmers and farm workers using hand sprayers. Farmers' exposure to pesticides is a major occupational health hazard in these countries.
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#196Download full text
- Keywords:
- Residential water demand, two-part tariffs, fixed volumetric charge, demand management strategies
Modelling residential water demand with fixed volumetric charging in a large urban municipality: The case of Brisbane, Australia
This paper uses household level data to model residential water demand in Brisbane, Australia from 1998 to 2004. In this system, residential consumption is charged using a fixed annual service fee with no free entitlement and a fixed volumetric charge per kilolitre. Water demand is specified as quarterly household water consumption and demand characteristics include the contemporaneous and lagged marginal price of water, household income and size, and the number of rainy (with at least some precipitation) and warm (greater than 19.5°C) days. The findings not only confirm residential water as price and income inelastic, but also that the price and income elasticity of demand in owner-occupied households is higher than in renter households. However, the results also show that weather, especially the number of warm days, is likely to exert a much greater influence on residential water consumption than any factors subject to the usual demand management strategies.
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#195Download full text
- Keywords:
- Productivity; technical and scale efficiency; technological progress; Malmquist indices; universities.
Efficiency, technology and productivity change in Australian universities, 1998-2003
In this study, productivity growth in thirty-five Australian universities is investigated using nonparametric frontier techniques over the period 1998 to 2003. The inputs included in the analysis are full-time equivalent academic and non-academic staff, non-labour expenditure and undergraduate and postgraduate student load and the outputs are undergraduate, postgraduate and PhD completions, national competitive and industry grants and publications. Using Malmquist indices, productivity growth is decomposed into technical efficiency and technological change. The results indicate that annual productivity growth averaged 3.3 percent across all universities, with a range between -1.8 percent and 13.0 percent, and was largely attributable to technological progress. However, separate analyses of research-only and teaching-only productivity indicate that most of this gain was attributable to improvements in research-only productivity associated with pure technical and some scale efficiency improvements. While teaching-only productivity also contributed, the largest source of gain in that instance was technological progress offset by a slight fall in technical efficiency.
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#194
Evidence on the arbitrage efficiency of SPI index futures and options markets
This paper investigates arbitrage opportunities from the Australian market using the futures and futures option contracts traded on the Sydney Futures Exchange (SFE) within a put-call-futures-parity (PCFP) framework. A thorough ex post analysis is first carried out. Tick-by-tick transaction price data allow the futures contracts, the call futures options and the put futures options to be matched within a one minute interval. This paper take into account the realistic transaction costs that an arbitrager has to incur, including the implicit bid-ask spread. The results reveal a significant number of violations with 25.40% of the sample breaching the PCFP equation with an average profit of 6.733 index points for SFE member firms. Ex ante tests are also conducted whereby the trios that signified an ex post profit for members were lagged up to 3 minutes before being executed. The results were similar to the ex post results casting doubt on the efficiency and integration between these two derivative markets in Australia.
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#193
Significance of Employing a Multilateral Index Formula for Interstate Comparisons: A Case Study of the Australian Farm Sector
The paper demonstrates the drawbacks on using official data and binary indices when attempting an interstate comparison of output and productivity growth. The use of official data in one’s national currency still requires a numerary currency due to price variations across states. Even with the use of index number formulas, some indices have shown to fail the transitivity property when more than 2 states are concerned. Hence the paper aims to demonstrate the significance of using a multilateral index formula like the Geary-Khamis (GK) method, EKS method and CCD method for derivation of appropriate currency converters or purchasing power parities (PPPs) to enable proper quantification of real output at the multilateral level. Subsequently, the paper demonstrates the variations in results between official aggregates and multilateral aggregates based on the GK method.
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#192
Nonlinear Filtering for Stochastic Volatility Models with Heavy Tails and Leverage
This paper develops a computationally efficient filtering based procedure for the estimation of the heavy tailed SV model with leverage. While there are many accepted techniques for the estimation of standard SV models, incorporating these effects into an SV framework is difficult. Simulation evidence provided in this paper indicates that the proposed procedure outperforms competing approaches in terms of the accuracy of parameter estimation. In an empirical setting, it is shown how the individual effects of heavy tails and leverage can be isolated using standard likelihood ratio tests.
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#191Download full text
- Keywords:
- Non-linear filtering, stochastic volatility, size effect, threshold
Non-linear filtering with state dependant transition probabilities: A threshold (size effect) SV model
This paper considers the size effect, where volatility dynamics are dependant upon the current level of volatility within an stochastic volatility framework. A non-linear filtering algorithm is proposed where the dynamics of the latent variable is conditioned on its current level. This allows for the estimation of a stochastic volatility model where dynamics are dependant on the level of volatility. Empirical results suggest that volatility dynamics are in fact influenced by the level of prevailing volatility. When volatility is relatively low (high), volatility is extremely (not) persistent with little (a great deal of) noise.
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#190Download full text
- Keywords:
- Gegenbauer process, Wavelet packet transform, Best-basis, Autocovariance
Simulation of Gegenbauer processes using wavelet packets
In this paper, we propose to study the synthesis of Gegenbauer processes using the wavelet packets transform. In order to simulate 1-factor Gegenbauer process, we introduce an original algorithm, inspired by the one proposed by Coifman and Wickerhauser [CW92], to adaptively search for the best-ortho-basis in the wavelet packet library where the covariance matrix of the transformed process is nearly diagonal. Our method clearly outperforms the one recently proposed by [Whi01], is very fast, does not depend on the wavelet choice, and is not very sensitive to the length of the time series. From these first results we propose an algorithm to build bases to simulate k-factor Gegenbauer processes. Given the simplicity of programming and running, we feel the general practitioner will be attracted to our simulator. Finally we evaluate the approximation due to the fact that we consider the wavelet packet coeficients as uncorrelated. An empirical study is carried out which supports our results.
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#189
Consumption Behaviour Under Institutional Transitions in China
The study on Chinese consumption behaviour under institutional transitions is significant from a theoretical as well as a policy perspective. Ignoring heterogeneity in consumption behaviour across regions may lead to a bias in estimation results when modelling a consumption function. This paper attempts to provide an alternative empirical study on Chinese consumption behaviour where panel data estimation approaches are employed to capture heterogeneities across regions. Our findings suggest that there are significant changes in both urban and rural households’ consumption behaviour during 1990s and rural households’ consumption is more volatile and sensitive to the changes in economic variables than their counterparts in China.
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#188Download full text
- Keywords:
- Biodiversity, conservation, Australia’s tropical wildlife, public knowledge, balanced information.
What Role Does Knowledge of Wildlife Play in Providing Support for Species' Conservation?
Conservation of biodiversity is a complex issue. Apart from the creation of nature reserves, there is a plethora of other factors that are part of this complex web. One such factor is the public knowledge of species. Since public funding is imperative for the conservation of species and creation of reserves for them, it is important to determine the public’s awareness of species and their knowledge about them. In the absence of such awareness and knowledge, it is possible that the public will misallocate their support. In other words, resources may be provided for species that do not need support urgently. We show how availability of balanced information about species helps the public to make rational decisions and to allocate support (e.g. monetary) to species that need it most. Other implications of a ‘wildlife knowledgeable’ public are also discussed.
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#187
Economic Development Strategies: Examples from Europe and Australia
By looking at very different aspects of regional economic development theory and policy as well as geographical areas, this paper provides a foundation of economic strategies applicable to many regions. The focus is set on a flexible and holistic approach to be able to include a wide range of economic development and wellbeing indictor and to offer an alternative to the neoclassical development framework. The European regional policy is used as an example to analyse policy in a theoretical economic development framework. The Australian example is a practical case study of a small rural shire showing the issues individual regions are facing when they are dealing with regional development on a local level.